A reality check

The ODI series against India came as a challenge for a much-improved England side who had made leaps and bounds over the previous two years, reaching new heights over the English summer as well as coming through a hard-fought series against Bangladesh. It promised to be a tough task, but hopes were high for a team much hyped by many corners. What came next was something of a reality check.

Not that it was all bad, of course. Make consecutive scores of 350, 366, and 321 in a three match series and you would probably expect to come away with a series win. The problem was that India were still able to outscore them on two of those occasions, only just falling short in the final ODI. A series that saw many strong performances with the bat, saw few with the ball. It's not a time for drastic action, but in some areas a bit of a rethink could be needed.

The most obvious area of attention is, of course, their performance with the ball. It's a horrible time to be a bowler in ODI cricket right now with run rates going through the roof and records are falling all around, and England's bowlers certainly struggled. Often they were able to get the early breakthroughs - having India facing positions of 63/4, 25/3, and 37/2 across the course of the series - but from there India were able to recover with batsmen like Kohli, Yuvraj, Dhoni, and Jadhav all playing a big role. In the opening two games, these four shared the big match-winning partnerships, the kind that make all the difference in this format of the game. Kohli and Jadhav's 200 run partnership took India from 63/4 to a position of strength at 263/5; Yuvraj and Dhoni's 256 gave them a platform to go all out in attack in the last seven overs. England batted well, no doubt, but never had that truly colossal partnership that makes all the difference. India's bowlers took more wickets in the middle overs. It was also worth noting in the individual century counts, where India had four to England's one.

It is often said that wickets are key in slowing down the run rate in this format, and for the most part, it's true. And that was one of the big problems for England. The bowlers struggled to take wickets in the middle overs, and India could recover before imposing themselves again towards the very end of the innings. Over the last twelve months, Adil Rashid has been a key man in this respect, in 2016 England's leading wicket taker, most economic, and with one of the best strike rates. But Rashid's form is so often in flux, and in this series he played just the one game - five overs, fifty runs. It was difficult for Morgan to have confidence in his man after that. Moeen Ali became England's sole spinner, and was their most economic bowler in the series, but was left wicketless from the three games.

Was it that the bowlers were often failing to consistently hit a line or length, or was it that they lacked that so-called 'x factor', an extra quality to take wickets in the middle overs? An attack relying primarily on swing and seam that can generally do a better job in home conditions looked to be needing that different option - like Mark Wood for instance if fit, or Steven Finn if his confidence returns. It feels somewhat premature to abandon Stuart Broad in this format, too.

In fairness, India's bowlers were far from remarkable either. Ravindra Jadeja was the only bowler on either side with a series economy rate under 6 runs per over, going at 5.23. Figures of 1/50 and 1/45 in the first two games come away as simply brilliant, and were arguably a key difference between the sides. When England had their best day with the ball - when the short ball was used to greater effect, more wickets fell in the middle of the innings, and Stokes and Woakes tied India down at the death - they won the game. Though the series brought three high scoring and thrillingly tense games, part of me was still longing for a more even contest between bat and ball. The basic premise of cricket is obviously 'score more runs than the other team', but in a way that premise was taken to the extreme.

It's a big year for England in ODI cricket, with the format taking centre stage until July and a home Champions Trophy beginning in June. Even if this series provided something of a reality check after what was generally a high flying 2016, England have to be considered among the favourites to win. Home advantage will be a big deal, and for all the bowlers' struggles they should at least go better in their more naturally suited conditions. This tour showed though, that their journey is not complete; they're not world beaters just yet.

Disappointments and what ifs

I have mixed feelings about this series, and the 2-0 scoreline. There is, of course, disappointment: the missed opportunities, the what ifs, and the general frustration that the same old problems seem always to be repeating themselves. And yet there's also a part of me who has kept up the optimism, the ‘look for the positives' spiel so often churned out to the media even when, on the face of it, things look pretty bad. This has been a series which I expected England to lose, and which they duly did, yet it wasn't a loss that felt quite as bad as those that have come before.

Of course, the overriding sense is one of disappointment. England were outplayed in all departments; Pakistan with a batting lineup where you felt someone would always get the runs, and a bowling attack always capable of causing England great difficulty. Mohammad Hafeez, Misbah-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq, and Younis Khan all hit centuries and scored over 300 runs; whilst Shoaib Malik scored 245 in the first game. Malik also took eleven wickets and topped the bowling averages; Yasir Shah was the leading wicket taker in the series with 15, despite missing the first match; Wahab Riaz could be destructive; Imran Khan somewhat unsung, but effective; and Zulfiqar Babar helping build the pressure by bowling maiden, after maiden, after maiden. In contrast, for England it was tough to see where the runs were coming from beyond Cook and Root, and when they bowled the spinners rarely threatened on the same level as the pacemen - far from ideal in conditions like these. Spin proved a lethal weapon so often for Pakistan, but England's spinners could never let the pressure build. Admittedly the Pakistan batsmen are much superior players of both spin bowling and the conditions, and targeted the spinners, but England struggled for consistency and accuracy. The fast bowlers were excellent, but were left with too much work to do.

It's frustrating, because a lot of the time it seems to be the same old problems coming up again. Whilst I am a fan of both Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid, it's clear that they are still a work in progress. England should stick with them, but this series showed that they really will have to learn fast. It's clear that both can be very dangerous on their day: just think of Rashid on the last day of the first test, or Moeen Ali against India last year. But those days have come too far apart, and in between them they haven't been able to at least contain. There's also the batting line up, and that middle order that hasn't really fired all year. Ian Bell has shown some fight this series, but he can't have many more chances left. His duck in the second innings was his ninth score of 0 or 1 this year. Together in that innings numbers 3 to 7 scored just eight runs, three making ducks, and all falling to spin. Several times the batsmen have made a start, got to about forty runs, and then got out. Even Root made three fifties and no centuries. They're just not capitalising. And still England are no closer to deciding who should open the batting.

But still somewhere in there, are the good things. Like how they came so close to winning in Abu Dhabi, denied by the fading light. How England batted long in that game to ground Pakistan down, and to even put themselves in with a chance of winning through a brilliant spell of bowling from Adil Rashid. And how they nearly pulled off the impossible to save the second test, Rashid again showing great character with the bat, him and Mark Wood laying down the anchor. It proved merely to delay the inevitable, but it was still an effort to be proud of. There were the performances of the pace bowlers throughout: Anderson having a sensational record of 13 wickets at 15.61; Mark Wood having his best match yet in Dubai; Stokes taking wickets in Abu Dhabi; and Broad finally coming to the party in Sharjah. There was nothing easy about the conditions they bowled in, but they did the task admirably.

More than anything, it's a series that leaves England with a lot of what ifs. What if Cook had managed to win a toss, and England had the chance to bat first? What if the sun had set just a few overs later in Abu Dhabi, and they weren't left just 25 runs short? What if Finn didn't have to go home injured, and there was an opportunity to rotate with Wood? Instead Wood, too, now finds himself on a plane home, missing the limited overs matches with injury. What if Stokes hadn't been injured during the final test? England would have been able to better manage the workloads of Anderson and Broad, and perhaps he might have helped the lead extend beyond 72. What if the fielders had clung on to their catches, like Ian Bell dropping both Mohammad Hafeez and Asad Shafiq in Abu Dhabi? What if Broad hadn't overstepped when he got Shoaib Malik in the same innings? What if Bairstow had taken that stumping of Hafeez in Sharjah?

But that was the difference. Pakistan took their chances when they came; England were left with a bunch of missed opportunities and what ifs. Pakistan stepped up when it mattered, like when Wahab Riaz brought England's downfall on the third morning in Dubai, or how the spinners struck them down on the third morning in Sharjah. There would always be a batsmen to stand up and do the job for Pakistan, barring that dramatic final day of the first match. At times it felt like one of that middle order of Younis Khan, Misbah, and Asad Shafiq would always be batting, not giving anything to the English bowlers. In the final test it was Mohammad Hafeez, scoring 151 to take Pakistan clear of the danger, and with Azhar Ali sharing their only century stand for the first wicket. The runs were on the board, and then the spinners could have their fun.

England are left with a lot to do to improve. Next they head to South Africa, only the team ranked number one in the world. It's a place that should suit them better - and especially the pace bowlers - but where the batsmen will face a stern test from the opposition quicks, particularly Dale Steyn. It will be a tough ask for a batting lineup that is still not firing, and who have been shown to struggle against genuine pace before; and it will be a tough place to try and bed in the next opening partner for Alastair Cook (likely to be Alex Hales). The winter rolls on.

What next?

It wasn't quite the great escape England had dreamed of. Though Root, Bairstow, and Buttler had all fallen before lunch, and Stokes shortly afterwards, England were still battling it out with seven overs to go. The lower order became heroes - Rashid (61 from 172) and Wood (29 from 95) facing the most balls by a ninth wicket pair in the fourth innings of a test match, before Wood fell with 11.2 overs still to go. But after all that hard work, one late mistake from Rashid saw it all come to nothing. The shot will haunt him, but you can't criticise the man in his second test who batted the longest of England's batsman. It goes down as a heavy defeat, but it wasn't a surrender.

Now, with one match left to be played, England will be considering their options. England's batsmen are struggling to convince, and it was the collapse on the third morning that really cost them the match. They dug in on the final day, but even so it was numbers eight and ten who shone the most. The most likely change, one looking close to certain, would be for Taylor to come in for Buttler, with Bairstow taking on the gloves. There's no doubt of Buttler's talent and that he'll be important for years to come, but he's struggled so much since the second half of the summer. His confidence seems lost, and his natural game has disappeared. And the problem with wicketkeepers is that when the form disappears so much with the bat, mistakes can creep in with the gloves as well and it soon becomes difficult to justify a place. I do feel for him, but it will be hard to argue if this is the outcome. And with his immense importance to the limited overs teams, I feel that maybe the World Twenty20 should be looked upon as the priority.

Another option would be to bring Hales into the side, potentially making a second change and leaving out Ian Bell, the other man under huge pressure. Moeen Ali was always going to be a makeshift option as opener, and though he did a decent job in the first test, here he just wasn't looking the part. His second innings dismissal, going after the ball when there's a match to be saved, did not reflect well on him. I don't though want to be too critical of Moeen - he's being given such a difficult role when having no prior first class experience of the position. Really England are still struggling to work out where he fits best into the batting line up. At the moment, they might look stronger with a genuine opener there in Hales; the problem is that Hales has done very little recently to set the world alight. But if he's on the tour, then he has to be in contention - because otherwise why is he there? I would though expect England to stick with Moeen Ali for the next test, but his temporary role looks unlikely to be made permanent.

England will also be hoping for that slice of luck at the very beginning of the match. These are the kind of pitches you want to be batting first on - and not be batting last - but so far Misbah has won both of the tosses for Pakistan. It's the tiny moment you can do nothing about, but yet it can make a world of difference: all going to plan, the spinners would have the benefit of bowling with runs on the board - and a better chance to capitalise on the early strides the seamers have often made. Containment is not the natural game of Moeen or Rashid, and it's something they haven't been successful at - both having economy rates comfortably above four runs per over. But when the pressure of the scoreboard has been in play, the wickets have come more freely - just think of that final day in Abu Dhabi. The opportunity to bowl on a final day pitch - all going well, of course - would be such a boost for a spin twins, giving them a stage to shine and a license to attack.

England aren't quite out of this series yet. Pakistan will be favourites for the final match, sure, and absolutely deserved to take the series lead after that second test. They have the better bowling attack and better batting lineup for success in these conditions, and their whole team has contributed in a way that England's hasn't. With the bat it feels like there's always someone to score the runs - Asad Shafiq, Shoaib Malik, Younis Khan, and Misbah having all made centuries, and Mohammad Hafeez coming within a whisker with 98. And with the ball there's Wahab Riaz, who made the second test Pakistan's with some devastating bowling on day three; and Yasir Shah, causing havoc on his return from injury. Somewhat unsung too, are the opening bowler Imran Khan and the spinner Zulfiqar Babar, who has bowled far more overs than anyone else, including the small matter of 42 maidens.

But still it shouldn't be all doom and gloom for England. There's still a match to go, a match to get something out of this series, and there are some good points to pull strength from. There's the way the first test burst into life on the final day, thanks to the monumental innings of Alastair Cook and the debutant Rashid showing just how dangerous he could be. There's the way they came so close to getting something from this second test, the lower order showing a lot of character in refusing to roll over and die. Against Australia at Lord's, the end came much, much sooner. There's the way the pace bowlers have contributed: Wood being more of a hit in the second test; Stokes having a four wicket haul in the first; and Anderson having great figures for someone considered most effective in the swing-friendly conditions of home (Broad though has been a blip, with just two wickets). With the bat Joe Root's golden run is going on and on, and Cook looks in the mood to play those long, long innings just like his first (injury permitting). If they had a bit more support, then who knows, things might start falling magically into place.

As ever, it would be a tall ask, but I still don't think it's completely out of the question. England's flaws are clear to see, but even so I've seen enough glimmers to give me some hope that maybe they could get something out of this tour - though Pakistan will be the clear favourites. Both matches have gone the distance with more than one result possible in those final overs, two thrilling finales to show the series is full of life. Here's hoping for a third.

England victorious

England have won the Ashes. With a match to spare. It's not something I dared to believe at the start of the series - I saw myself as optimistic in thinking England could spring some upsets and come out with a series draw. And yet they have pulled through, and in these past two matches in particular, utterly dominated the opposition. A young team unfancied at the start of the series, with a 5-0 whitewash 18 months earlier still casting its shadow, has come out with their hands on the urn. I feel like I've written a lot about turnarounds this summer, but this one topped them all.

Really, the Ashes were won within ten overs at Trent Bridge. Australia already seven wickets down, game - and series - pretty much over. Or was it just in the first five, half the wickets already fallen and the top order in tatters? Maybe it was even the game before, at Edgbaston, England coming charging back by dismissing Australia for 136 after suffering their own abject humiliation at Lord's. The series was far from over, but it felt like the tide had turned for good. But nothing can beat that single moment to truly seal the deal. The sound of the ball knocking into the stumps, a sound that might be the most glorious in the world. The roar that follows, both at the ground and in people's homes, their cars, any place people could possibly be following the match. Nothing can beat that feeling of jubilation.

England have had their share of standout performances this series, special moments that stay with you for a long time. Root in Cardiff, Anderson and Finn at Edgbaston, Broad and Root (again) at Trent Bridge. Ben Stokes added himself to that list. He didn't need to bowl in the first innings, but when called upon in the second innings he was exceptional. Stokes doesn't always swing the ball, but here he did and then some. In that innings it felt like he couldn't be kept out of the game - when he wasn't taking wickets he was a safe pair of hands at gully (and the wonder catch in the first innings must be mentioned here too - any excuse to mention that catch). Figures of 21-8-36-6 are special on any day, even more so when those figures are winning the most valued prize in English cricket.

The man I want to mention most of all though is the captain, Alastair Cook. Like so many others, I've been very critical of Cook on this blog in the past. He had never felt to me to be a natural captain, being too cautious and not having the natural instincts and tactical nous that can make a captain so great. Indeed, had England lost this series, the writing still might have been on the wall. In this series he hasn't led from the front with the bat - a brave but doomed innings of 96 at Lord's aside - never quite finding his luck. But he has certainly led on the field. England are united, playing cricket with smiles on their faces and with a joyful and attacking spirit, and Cook has led them admirably. This victory will represent a great personal triumph too - picture the man who led his team to a 5-0 defeat, and picture the man leading his team to such a glorious series win now. His stubbornness and refusal to back down, the trait that can be so frustrating, has helped carry him and his team all the way to victory.

At times like these, it's hard not to dream of the future. This is a massive win - and it feels like the start of something. Joe Root, now ranked as the best batsman in the world, is just 24. 24 too is Ben Stokes, a player who will frustrate at times, but who is always capable of bringing those magic moments like in the past few days. Mark Wood, handed the ball on the final morning and taking the winning wicket, 25. Steven Finn, hero at Edgbaston, still only 26. Jonny Bairstow, who is just finding his way back into the side, but another potential game changer is 25. Jos Buttler, who hasn't had the biggest impact in this series but is ever improving with the gloves, 24. Gary Ballance too, out of the team now but still with a bright future ahead of him at only 25. And more. I shouldn't get too carried away, because they will stumble - and probably soon with a tough winter schedule ahead and away wins at the moment being like gold dust. The new era is though starting to bear its first fruits, and there is certainly a lot of talent there to be excited about.

Right now I'm stuck in celebration mode. There have been so many ups and downs over this past year or so, and moments like these make all that pain feel so much better. This series may not go down as a classic - truthfully, the standard hasn't always been high and every match has been one-sided - but it's still one that's given us plenty of moments to remember. And still there is one match to go - a chance for England to make history by winning four matches at home for the first time. The Oval could be their victory parade, though Australia will still want to spoil their party. But for now they have time to celebrate, and a chance to relax, and rightly so. They've earned it. They've won the Ashes.

First blood: England

It was the most complete performance I've seen England give in a long time. Every man contributed in some way, the bowling in particular being as consistent and disciplined as it's ever been. England outclassed Australia in every respect, playing the attacking 'brand of cricket' that there has been so much talk about, and started consigning the whitewash of 2013/14 firmly into history.

Australia were on top when Joe Root was on nought on the first morning, but after being dropped by Haddin there were few moments where they were again in control. At the end of day one, honours were fairly even - England perhaps marginally ahead - but Moeen Ali helped to take England past 400 the following morning with a fine innings of 77. A major feature of 2013/14 was the contrast between the tails of the two nations - England's being blown away by Mitchell Johnson just as often as Haddin would carry Australia firmly off into the distance. This time England are lucky enough to have a genuine batsman playing at number eight, being swamped with all rounders as they are. Sure, Ali should ultimately be batting higher up the order, but there can't be any real complaints about being able to have a batsmen of that quality in that position. England reached 430 at a run rate of 4.20 an over, led by innings from Root and Ali. For Australia, Mitchell Starc was the most threatening of the bowlers with 5/114; whilst England's tormentor of the past, Mitchell Johnson, went wicketless.

But it was England's display with the ball that most impressed me. Though the Australian batsmen often settled, it was a testament to England's consistency that none went on to make a major score. Rogers led the way with 95 - his seventh consecutive innings over 50, yet not crossing the century mark - and Smith, Clarke, Voges, and Watson were all dismissed in their thirties. Australia still scored at a good rate - 3.63 runs per over, but they never dominated England in the way that New Zealand had at times. Attempts were made with Moeen Ali, and he was indeed the most expensive of England's bowling attack - but he too got his prize with the key wickets of Smith and Clarke. And where Haddin and the tail had caused so many problems in Australia, this time England finished off the job swiftly, Anderson and Broad picking up three wickets with the new ball. Australia were all out for 308 on the morning of day three, England 122 runs ahead.

With the best part of three days left to go in the match and England starting to set a total for Australia, it was a situation where in the past you might have expected a more cautious approach. But England's attacking spirit was maintained. Lyth (37) and Bell (60), a pair dismissed for single figures in the first innings, helped to put England in a more comfortable position after being exposed at 22/2. It wasn't a back-off-and-rebuild job - it was a stand of 51 coming in only 9.4 overs, returning the pressure back to Australia. Joe Root, as ever, chipped in again with 60, with 42 also coming from Ben Stokes. Yet it was a bowler, Mark Wood, whose innings was perhaps the most entertaining of them all - an innings that only lasted 18 balls, but had 32 runs come from it. I've been really impressed recently by Mark Wood - not just as he offers an extra facet to England's attack, but in his attitude and personality. He's just lively, playing the game with a smile on his face and being a bit of a joker, the sort that can keep a team's spirits up as well as at times being able to make something out of nothing with the ball. It's early days but if he can stay fit, he might be able to fill that missing link in England's bowling attack. As it was, he showed he could offer something with the bat as well, helping England to set a target above 400.

And so, on to the final innings. And England again delivered a fantastic display of bowling. Broad was sensational with the new ball in the morning, unlucky just to pick up the one wicket of Chris Rogers in his early spell. Australia looked to be heading safely into lunch at 97/1 - still a tall order to win the match, though not impossible. Cook brought on Moeen Ali - a name cropping up again and again in this match. Ali's previous two overs had been poor, hit for 22 mainly from the bat of David Warner, but he got his man this time. It was right on the stroke of lunch, and Warner was out. The effect on Australia's innings was devastating. After lunch, Broad was back - and soon gone were Smith and Clarke. Wood picked up Voges and Watson - the latter humiliated with another LBW, questions now arising over his test future. Ali was again in the mix, taking Haddin. The lower order - namely Mitchell Johnson - did put up resistance, but it was all too late. Man of the match Joe Root also picked up a couple, and took the final catch off Ali. England had been rampant; Australia dismissed for 242. England were victorious by a margin of 169 runs, and only four days had been used.

Even the optimistic predictions about England's performance in this series failed to predict such a strong win like this. England outperformed their counterparts in all departments: their bowling superior in the conditions - though the pitch was poor, England seemed to adapt better; making the important runs with the bat - Root's first innings century fantastic given the team's position; and Cook really captaining his side well. Importantly, luck was on their side - that drop of Root on the first day changing the match; parried catches caught on the rebound; streaky shots reaching the boundary rather than chopping onto the stumps.

Four matches are still to play. For all the deserved celebrations at the moment, much work is still left to be done. Australia will come back fighting, though changes may be in store - Watson in particular a man whose days look numbered, and Haddin another who may not last the series. Starc may also be a doubt for the next match, having had problems with his ankle (though even the deliveries he sent down on one leg could still be sensational). England can't let up and ease off the pressure, because then the momentum will shift - they have to be in it for the long haul. Five-match series are a marathon - twisting tails of intrigue and suspense, each day a mini-installment of another match. England have drawn the first blood, won the first act - but the finish line is still far off in the distance.

Though if they play anything like this, then maybe it's time to start dreaming.

Pre-Ashes Optimism (Or why England might do better than expected)

I'm optimistic ahead of this Ashes series. There, I said it. It might be foolish, looking at the form guides and looking over results from the last 12-18 months, but the optimism has sneaked in there somehow. And even so, it's a fairly pessimistic sort of optimism - I'm not sure I'll see England winning the Ashes this series, I just think they'll do better than expected. That they do have the potential to cause problems for Australia, that it won't be a simple walk in the park. Maybe it could even be a draw.

I know I have a habit of letting myself get sucked in, of getting my hopes up before the main event. I did it before the World Cup, and I certainly did it before the last Ashes (though perhaps with slightly more justification). I really can't help myself. I don't think England are just going to roll over and die in this series, I don't think Australia will find it easy at all. I've seen enough this season, enough to give me that bit of hope and believe that England can compete and spring some upsets. Of course, Australia are the massive favourites, coming in off the back of a World Cup win and having won the last Ashes with a whitewash. They have the number one batsman in the world in their armoury in Steve Smith, a bowler who gives many players nightmares in Mitchell Johnson. They have the players who can get under England's skin, players who will come at them hard, bowlers who can genuinely swing the ball and cause the batsmen heaps of problems, and batsmen who can and will pile on the runs. Australia have won four of their last five test series and England just one - and much of their progress since the last Ashes has been of that 'two steps forward, one step back' variety. Most pre-Ashes predictions have been favouring Australia, and, on the evidence, it's not difficult to see why.

So why am I optimistic about England's chances? Well this time, I think that step forward could be the start of something more. Over the series against New Zealand, there seemed to be this new attitude around the camp - this greater sense of self-belief that we've been waiting for. It was especially visible during the ODI series, albeit with a largely different group of players, but in the tests too there were signs - the approach of Root and Stokes when England fell to 30/4 on that first morning springs straight to mind. Players like these, Jos Buttler being another, are the sort that can really make this happen. Root is the sort who is always busy at the crease and can easily wind up the opposition just existing, whilst Stokes and Buttler have that X-factor, the ability to turn games around and win them by themselves. Leading the bowling attack are proven performers in Anderson and Broad (Broad can be a bit off and on, but against New Zealand, he certainly looked on). Mark Wood, though inexperienced, has really impressed me and is another that has that something about him, an ability at times to make something out of nothing (though it might be best to wrap him in cotton wool, too).

And, importantly, the captain is making runs again. Cook can lack in tactical nous and innovation, but he can make up for that in part by leading with the bat. When he makes stacks and stacks of runs, England often do well, and it will be crucial that he can do this. Lyth has got off to a good start in his test career with a century but has still played just the two tests, and Ballance and Bell have been struggling for runs of late - so Cook really has to lead that top order. With Australia having an off-spinner in Lyon and England having a lot of left handers (including all of that top three), avoiding early inroads will be important and Cook will be a big part of that. And if Lyon can't get at new batsmen, then England should be able to take advantage and press the attack.

There are though many areas that can be improved upon. The thing that has caused perhaps the most frustration in recent months has been the fielding, and specifically the catching. Catches were going down in the slips especially, and at times it seemed like an epidemic - one person drops a catch, and everyone else follows. There have been mistakes with the bat and the ball, errors of judgement that can be accepted from a team where many are still learning on the international stage - but the amount of drops recently has been inexcusable. I'd really like to see Adam Lyth join the slip cordon, having been doing the job brilliantly for Yorkshire, though England seem to be doing it on experience rather than, perhaps, merit. There are also questions over spin too, after a few poor tests for Moeen Ali and with the man waiting in the wings, Adil Rashid, not yet trusted by the captain and without test experience.

England will have to be at their best, their absolute best, to get that sniff. They really need to start the series well and not be walking away from Cardiff having been defeated, and letting themselves be drawn into a rut. Because maybe they can spring some upsets, and maybe things won't go so smoothly for Australia. Maybe Chris Rogers, playing his final series, might then be playing with one eye on the end; maybe Steve Smith will have problems up at number three against the Dukes ball, and maybe Mitchell Johnson will struggle again when it's in his hand. Maybe the players aren't quite at their best right now: Haddin has struggled for form recently, and Watson looks set to be preferred over Mitchell Marsh when the latter is perhaps more deserving of a place. The retirement of Ryan Harris for Australia is also far from ideal, having been such a brilliant performer who will be greatly missed from the international stage. Maybe then there are the odd chinks in the armour for England to poke at.

Or maybe I'm desperately clutching at straws. I have a lot of hopes for this team - maybe they're inexperienced and unproven, but there is a raw talent there. They won't find it easy and they will lose games - but I really hope the press don't hound them when they do because it is a work in progress (I have been as critical as any in the past, but this is their greatest test yet). And if they do play well, they might just sneak something out of it. As unlikely as it might seem, I don't think it's completely out of the question. The optimism has found its way in.